The hottest plastic tamps the bottom, and the afte

  • Detail

The author believes that at present, major economies such as China and the United States are in a sensitive period of the time window for raising interest rates. The high level of the dollar is difficult to fall, and crude oil is likely to undergo shock adjustment. Liansu will take this opportunity to adjust and tamp the bottom. Spot demand will gradually rise at the end of the first quarter, thus pushing Liansu prices up again

The U.S. government announced in January that the fiscal budget deficit for 2010 hit a record high. At the same time, the U.S. nonfarm employment data in January was also lower than expected (the actual value was -20000 people, and the forecast value was +5000 people). The fiscal deficit and the employment market will suppress the trend of the dollar in the medium term, but although the employment data is lower than expected, the overall situation is still improving, The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate hike in the first half of the year is still strong. The Fed's attitude towards the interest rate hike is turning a blind eye. The euro, dragged down by the Greek sovereign debt crisis, also makes it difficult for the dollar to fall sharply in the time window of interest rate hike

in terms of crude oil demand, the IEA report released in late February showed that it raised the global crude oil demand this year by 170000 barrels/day to 86.5 million barrels/day, which is 10000 barrels/day higher than the estimates of OPEC and EIA. As OPEC is the supplier of crude oil, in consideration of its own interests, material scientists and engineers have designed, tested and produced print heads, silicon wafers and thermal inkjet print heads here, which tend to underestimate the demand for crude oil, so that a lower production quota can be set to support oil prices. The author believes that due to the strong shock of the US dollar and the impact of high commercial inventories, which has passed the environmental impact assessment, the range of crude oil fluctuations may move down to the US dollar/barrel again, causing the factory listing price of LLDPE Petrochemical to decline, bringing the possibility of adjusting and consolidating the bottom to the continuous plastic price

spot demand will gradually increase

in terms of supply, Maoming Petrochemical will start commissioning in the near future after parking for more than a month, but it will take time to enter normal commercial operation, which has little impact on the market. Attention should be paid to the commissioning of the production equipment of the natural gas process route in the Middle East. If it runs smoothly, its low-cost advantage may have a great impact on the pricing system of ethylene derivatives in the world

at present, the Spring Festival has just ended, and most downstream plastic products enterprises are ready to start production. Recently, some enterprises need to purchase and stock goods. Recent market surveys show that most spot traders are optimistic about the demand after the festival, and they do not think that the long-term trend of plastics has been fundamentally reversed. As the weather warms up, residents' consumption of daily necessities increases. In addition, spring is also the traditional peak season for agricultural film demand. The consumption of agricultural film before the festival is flat, and there should be a climax after the festival

in terms of policy, the starting point of tightening domestic monetary policy is to manage inflation expectations, rather than suppress economic recovery. The main tone of "maintaining pressure when there is pressure" is still to ensure. At present, the adjustment focus of the government's management of inflation expectations is on the areas where the foam of resources (such as metals) and assets (such as stock market, real estate, etc.) increased too much in the early stage, but in consideration of promoting rural development and increasing farmers' income, it still supports the price of agricultural products. As a variety highly related to agriculture, LLDPE is still optimistic about its medium-term trend

to sum up, Liansu's main contract may tamp the bottom for the central axis shock at 12000 yuan/ton in the near future. Then, driven by the recovery of demand, the futures price may usher in a wave of rising waves, which may hit the integer level of 13000 yuan/ton

note: the reprinted content is indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and the domestic building energy conservation work is rising day by day, which does not mean that it agrees with its views or confirms the authenticity of its content

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI